If you've been to the blog before, you know that I love charts and I love Phish. That's why I like to put together Visual Setlists, Song Charts and maintain the Rotation Infographic.
While gearing up for my first consecutive shows since Summer '09, I thought I'd try to crystalize the six questions I have for the band on the cusp of the second leg of their Summer 2011 tour the best way I know how: through words, charts and graphics. This analysis isn't intended to ignite holy wars or unduly criticize the band, just provide a little insight into the state of the band through the use of song statistics and data visualization. There will be more slicing, dicing and visualizing of this data to come...
1. Will new faces and new venues translate to new inspiration?
This is the first significant run of shows that hasn't sniffed the Eastern time zone since the return (excepting the three-nighter for Festival 8 in 2009). Anybody who has seen Phish on both coasts knows that there are tangible differences in the audience dynamic, and while this can certainly alter the perception of the show... how much can it bleed over into the actual performance?
So how will West Coast audiences respond: will they be grateful for this meager attention or will unfamiliarity breed dispassionate detachment? More importantly, how will the band approach playing in front of a less familiar audience, particularly one that may be in danger of forgetting what it was that made them love the band? Either Phish can take this as a challenge - a way to re-energize and indoctrinate West Coasters into the lexicon of new Phish - or they can fall flat due to lack of energy. Here’s my brief summary of the situation in flow chart form…
2. Can Phish break their own record for number of different songs played for the third year in a row?
In 2009, and again in 2010 Phish performed more different songs in the calendar year than any previous year in their history (247, 251 respectively). They accomplished this with some year-end heroics in their New Year's runs and by debuting (almost) an album's worth of new material on Halloween of each year.
Currently, Phish has performed 193 different songs in 22 shows 2011 and without the benefit of a Halloween show to infuse the repertoire with a shot of new material, you might think the prospects of breaking this record seem grim.
However, they only need 59 additional songs to be debuted to break the record. Let’s look at the pace that they’re on to see what’s possible.
Through the first leg and Super Ball IX Festival, the average number of 2011 debuts played per show was 8.8 (193 different songs divided by 22 shows), but that includes the first six shows, which I will consider the time it takes to “establish the repertoire” (approximately 36 song that are in a five show rotation) -- performing most of these heavy rotation songs for the first time. Taking those out, the average dips to 5.75 debuts per show. Assuming the band can continue at this clip for the remaining 12 shows or even at a slightly slower 5 debut per show pace, this puts them at an additional 60 (12 x 5) songs for the course of the remaining shows. Record broken.
Of course, they'll have to dig deeper and deeper, especially with no costume set to boost the debut totals. With hints of a new Phish album being recorded this fall, maybe we'll see some newer material which could also play a factor. In any case, it will definitely be close, and if they are within reach by the end of the tour, and they decide to go for it, the three night stand at Dick's Sporting Goods Stadium could get very interesting!
3. Will leg two be treated like a continuation of a longer tour or its own mini-tour?
What does this question even mean? What the hell is the difference?
Well, if I may generalize… a typical tour follows a pattern. Establish a rotation of a dozen or so heavy rotation songs. Play standard versions of frequently played songs. Start to break established boundaries. Dig deeper into the catalog for variety and inspiration. Innovate and extrapolate on ideas developed earlier in the tour.
Shows that come towards the end of tours tend to become more adventurous, both from a song selection and playing perspective. One need only reference the December shows after long years of touring in 1995 and 1997 or the glorious peak August 93 for reference. As evidence, I present a graph of Average LTP per show for last few tours. LTP (Last Time Played) is simply the number of shows since a song was last seen -- a higher average LTP means there are more rarely performed songs in that show.
While some tours aren’t as dramatic as others, it is clear that overall, the band trends toward rarer songs near the end of the tour. So what will Friday at the Gorge be? Show #1 of Leg 2 or Show #23 of Summer Tour? We shall see.
4. What's left to be busted out?
It’s not uncommon for fans to petition for songs that haven't seen the repertoire since the 80's, and with recent bust-outs we know that anything is indeed on the table. I wouldn't be surprised to see Lushington and Dear Mrs. Reagan signs at upcoming gigs. But there's lots of room for creativity here, with such a diverse repertoire. I, personally, would like to see more mid-90's staples revived (Sparks, All Things Reconsidered) and More Waiting For Columbus songs, particularly those that might launch huge jams, get a chance in the rotation.
Here’s a timeline of every song performed at least 5 times by Phish that hasn’t been seen since Reagan or George H.W. Bush was president.
5. Will this be the tour that Phish embraces new songs or covers?
Despite the fact that Phish may be setting a recording breaking pace for diversity, it is frustrating to see that not translate into a tangible shift in the "heavy rotation" repertoire. We're still looking at Possums, Hoods and Bowies every three shows or so.
Mid-nineties Halloween songs Rock and Roll, Drowned and Crosseyed & Painless seem to be the “go-to” cover songs to feature as a second set opener or jamming vehicle. While we may be in the midst of witnessing Golden Age becoming the next cover to achieve this status, at a meager 4 times played since its December 2009 debut it isn’t exactly displacing the old standbys.
Among original material debuted since the return, only Backwards Down The Number Line, Stealing Time From The Faulty Plan, Kill Devil Falls, Ocelot and Light have been able to forcefully insert their way into the rotation, with 29 or more plays each; together they account for over a third of all new songs played since the return. This graph shows the number of performances of the 94 new songs debuted by Phish since the return.
Troubling, that even with all the debuts, many of them have been one-and-done, or majority played less than 10 times. Not a single cover makes the top ten (Shine A Light is most frequently played new cover with 8 performances). The number of one-timers debuted since ’09 is 61 (take out one-time-only Halloween songs and that goes down to 34). Don’t they like the new stuff? This graph represents the percentage of all songs performed that new stuff represents since the return.
6. Will the band make a renewed commitment to jamming?
This analysis is not intended to perpetuate the false equivalency of song length to quality of improvisation. However, just because a lengthy song does not automatically make for compelling jamming, that doesn't mean that the two aren't correlated. I argue that inspired improvisation is more likely to come when the band is willing to stretch out and open up than in the confines of a shorter song.
That disclaimer aside, let's compare the number of performances of songs that are 15 minutes or greater since the reunion (120 shows) to the 03-04 era (63 shows). Some may cry foul about using 2.0 as a reference point, since it is somewhat notorious for long (including a handful of uninspiring and aimless) jams. However, it is an era that good song timing data exists for and representative of the type of risk-taking that does produce unique versions of songs*.
Remember, 2.0 has little more than half the number of shows than 3.0. This is a comparison of the longest songs of each era, starting at songs that clock in over 15 minutes (I’ve excluded You Enjoy Myself and Divided Sky from this analysis as a “typical” version usually exceeds this threshold).
There is no question that the risk taking has taken a nose-dive. The ten songs jammed out in 2.0 but not 3.0 include titles like Mike’s Song, AC/DC Bag, Gumbo and Maze. Ouch.
Many Phish pundits and bloggers have said that the jamming will come once the band gets their legs back. And to further complicate matters, Mike Gordon claims in a hotline message that he thinks they are jamming.
Looks like we'll have to wait some time after this tour completes for our next serving of Phish. Let's get some jams out there so we'll have a little something to tide us over. See you at The Gorge!
* Full disclosure, I fall into the "like 2.0" category.
